The Future of Ontario — Part 1: Toronto

This is going to be a multi-part exploration on where I see major changes in demographics and economics in the province.

Toronto will be a very different city.

Young people fled Toronto in record numbers when the pandemic hit. They were already leaving pre-COVID, but the pandemic and work from home possibilities turned an entire legion of white collar workers into digital nomads.

Cities like Guelph, Kitchener-Waterloo, London, Kingston, Brantford, and Peterborough saw a huge rise in young people escaping the high costs of living in Toronto. They were mostly couples who could afford home.

This continued exodus will leave a gaping hole in the middle class of the city. As I explored in a previous article, this follows similar patterns during other pandemics, when the only people left in the city centre were the wealthy and the poor.

Toronto will have to make up for its huge middle class vacuum. Immigration has been the only reason Toronto’s population was growing before COVID. With immigration grinding to a halt, the city’s population will decrease this year. Once borders are opened back up, Toronto will import record numbers of immigrants to the city centre. Rents will continue to stay low as demand for rentals falls.

Some young people will stay, and others will continue to move to Toronto to experience the big city culture (if things ever return to normal). The typical cycle for a new grad to stay and then leave Toronto was about 7–10 years post-graduation. You’d move for work, advance your career, meet your spouse, move in together, and then leave once you could afford a home. Maybe you’d stay, but those cases were more rare given housing costs.

Now that cycle will be sped up as people can settle down and move out of the city quicker. They might skip moving to Toronto altogether if they can get the same job but live in Guelph.

Transit into Toronto will be critical in the future. There will be HUGE demand for increased service into and out of the city from the massive numbers of people who will be leaving Toronto. Commuting will be eliminated for many people, but some jobs may still require occasional travel.

That’s about all I’ve got for Toronto right now. Keeping these pretty light on purpose. Don’t forget to check out this article for a deeper dive.

Part 2 is here.