The Future of Ontario — Part 4: a Political Upheaval
Been a while since I’ve updated this series on how Ontario is going to change with respect to the largest YOY housing price increase in recorded history, a new future of remote work, and an upheaval of how business is done thanks to COVID. Part 1 focused on Toronto. Part 2 focused on mid-sized cities. Part 3 focused on small towns.
But let’s talk about politics for a second.
Real estate and politics have always been very close to one another in Ontario. Our policies around zoning have made home ownership the ticket to the middle class. It’s why people are so desperate to get into the world of home ownership. It’s why absurd mortgage fraud schemes like “The Brampton Loan” exist in Ontario. Perhaps most importantly, if you’re a homeowner, Ottawa tends to cater to your interests.
This plays out in the political space, as homeowners vote in proportionately higher numbers than renters — particularly in municipal politics as municipal policy changes have the greatest impact on housing prices. While the homeowner impact on voting has always been present, I specifically want to explore the impact of the current housing boom + migration of young people on politics in Ontario.
Han & Shin (2021) explored the political implications of housing booms. They found evidence for increased voter approval of incumbent governments, particularly if they were right-leaning. Makes sense — if I’m a homeowner and there’s a housing boom, I’m going to attribute the current environment to the actions of that government. Homeowners are more likely to be right-leaning — not just in Canada, but in all developed countries — so if the incumbent government is more conservative, such as in Ontario, that government stands to retain power.
The impact on renters is also interesting. Since a housing boom does not benefit renters, they are more likely to feel that the government does not serve them well. Since renters are more likely to vote for left-leaning governments, voter apathy is a real risk here. In other words, if you live in Ontario and don’t like the Ontario Conservative Party, things aren’t looking good.
The housing boom that Ontario has experienced started around 2017. Economist Mike Moffatt has a great series of articles on why he thinks our housing prices started getting so whacky in Ontario, and it boils down to a population boom combined with a low housing supply. The article I linked explains everything in detail, but here are the two graphs that explain it all:
One other aspect of this housing boom is the type of people driving the housing boom. Recall that homeowners tend to vote more conservative. Well, who owns homes in Canada? They’re generally older and generally wealthier. Conservatives value hard work and individual responsibility — the things that supposedly give you access to wealth, so it makes sense that these values, morals, and life outcomes are so closely related. They’re also more resistant to change, but more on that later.
But here’s the thing: the housing boom isn’t being driven by older people who already own homes; it’s being driven by young people buying their first house. These people aren’t poor; they are typically highly-educated young couples who both have relatively high-paying jobs. They are also far more progressive in general due to their mode of education and what’s fashionable in their social circles. These are the people that helped give the NDP power in urban centres.
So what happens when they get fed up with high rents and housing prices in Toronto?
They leave.
They go to Hamilton, or Guelph, or Brantford, or Kitchener-Waterloo, or Woodstock, or London. They work jobs where they can work remotely or relocate with ease. They drive until they qualify. Some of them get help from their parents for a down-payment. But their political views remain unchanged (for now).
This has been happening for years in North America — most intensely in cities like San Francisco, New York, Chicago, and Toronto. These “leftugees” have been moving away from major cities (which all vote very liberal), and have been moving to areas of the country that have traditionally voted more conservative. The draw? It’s all about buying a house and the financial security + quality of life that comes with it. COVID has accelerated that trend, as the main draws of living in a city — arts & entertainment, cultural attractions, and ease of travel — have been desecrated for over a year now.
For those leaving Toronto and other cities for more rural destinations that have typically voted conservative, this presents an interesting situation for the political future of those regions.
In the 2018 provincial election, rural Ontario voted blue and every city larger than Guelph voted progressive, with the interesting exception of cities within the GTA that surround Toronto. The map looks overwhelmingly blue because of the land, but the orange sections all represent larger cities like Hamilton, London, KW, Windsor, and of course Toronto’s core all voted NDP with a few Liberal seats scattered around. Guelph has the province’s only Green Party seat.
In the 2019 federal election, the results looked similar. Ontario by surface area is still very blue, but the Federal Liberals clearly have a lot more respect from voters.
The interesting thing to watch for in the future is how the movement of young people within the province will impact voting patterns. Short-term, there’s unlikely to be an impact. But what happens when traditionally conservative Brantford is flooded with more and more starry-eyed 30 somethings wanting to put down roots? What about when St. Thomas becomes filled with young couples who all voted NDP/Liberal in the last election in London but had to move south to afford their first home?
What about the vacuum left by those fleeing their current city for a shot at owning a house? Their spots will likely be taken by a combination of the next generation of young people who want to experience the big city, along with international students and skilled immigrant workers.
However, the latter two groups cannot vote, so if the flow of young people to larger cities is stalled in the future, this may present interesting political trends in the future. We may slowly start seeing mid/small cities, and possibly rural Ontario towns who traditionally vote more conservative start to see their political preferences change.